Vision 2045: Development Paths for Indonesia – September 2022
Inforum completed a project for the Asian Development Bank in late September 2022 that involved building an interindustry macro (IM) model for Indonesia. Inforum worked with BAPPENAS (the Indonesian planning ministry) to develop scenarios to 2045, which is regarded as the 100th anniversary of Indonesia’s independence.
The project’s capstone was 2 weeks of onsite training and consultation at BAPPENAS in Jakarta, which also involved meetings with other government stakeholder organizations. By 2045, it is projected that Indonesia will have the 6th largest population, and may be in the top 7 world economies, ranked by market GDP (it is already ranked 7th by purchasing power parity GDP). The study concentrated on addressing constraints to growth, such as female labor force participation, education, and infrastructure development.
Health Care Demand, Supply, and Funding in the Long Run – August 2022
In a recent study, Inforum economists analyzed the projected long-term trends in health care demand, supply, and funding of health care in the United States.
Inforum employed its LIFT model of the U.S. economy, complete with representation of demand and supply components for health and non-health sectors, to develop a comprehensive and consistent portrayal of developments over the coming 75 years.
The baseline scenario illustrates the potential size and composition of the future economy, together with health needs, supplies, and funding. Scenario assumptions are consistent with key economic and health care projections made by the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare programs. Given these baseline assumptions, projected spending on health care plausibly may prove sustainable for government and household sectors, and production may prove feasible to satisfy projected levels of demand.
Download the full report here.
The Economic Impact of a Los Angeles and Long Beach Port Stoppage – June 2022
The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) commissioned an analysis using the Inforum LIFT economic model to quantify the impacts of a 15-day closure at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports. Specifically, it estimates how such a closure would impact U.S. employment, output and income. Findings show that a port stoppage would result in an estimated $7.5 billion reduction in output and a loss of 41,000 jobs (including more than 6,100 in manufacturing).
Employment Impacts in a Decarbonized America – June 2022
Inforum contributed to a Third Way (https://www.thirdway.org/) report which calculates employment impacts of a decarbonized economy. Specifically, Inforum utilized its Status model to analyze impacts of two policy pathways to net-zero emissions. Key findings include decarbonizing the US economy will result in a net gain of two million jobs by 2050, with the energy efficiency and electric vehicle sectors predicted to record the most growth.
More information, including the full report, is available at: https://decarbamerica.org/report/employment-impacts-in-a-decarbonized-economy/. Technical and methodology details can be found at: https://decarbamerica.org/technical-results/.
Failure to Act – September 2020
Inforum and EBP (formerly Economic Development Research Group) investigated the economic impacts of the deterioration of electric utilities, water supply and wastewater utilities, and surface transportation infrastructure over the next 20 years. The study was sponsored by the American Society of Civil Engineers.
An Economic Analysis of Spending on Marine Transportation System (MTS) Infrastructure – April 9, 2020
Inforum worked with the U.S. Committee on the Marine Transportation System to examine the effects of water transportation infrastructure spending on the economy. The study was conducted using the Inforum Lift model. The policy scenarios include investing up to $87 billion by 2030, with higher amounts of spending on operations and maintenance. The study shows that increased infrastructure spending provided widespread economic benefits, including enhanced labor productivity, job growth, and income.
2019 Inforum Outlook Conference – December 12, 2019
Inforum held its 52nd annual outlook conference at the University of Maryland. About 75 representatives from government, private industry, and academic organizations participated in the event. In addition to the U.S. economic outlook, topics included Brexit, economic effects of climate policy, measurement of income inequality, and macroeconomic analysis of the CBO. The conference agenda and other details are available, including slides of the select presentations.
The Supply Side of Health Care – November 21, 2019
Total nominal US health care spending as measured in the National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) reached nearly $3.5 trillion in 2017, or about 17.9 percent of GDP. This relationship is a demand side measure, relating health care expenditures in final demand to total final demand, which is equal to GDP. GDP is also measured as the sum of value added by industry. Other attempts to measure the health care share of value added have resulted in much lower shares than the demand side measure.
In a previous paper we traced the sectoral contributions to health care supply within an input-output (IO) framework, for the year 2012. In this paper we update and extend this analysis in current prices, from 1997-2017. We investigate the impacts of changes in industry structure, international trade and sectoral productivity on the relative contributions of industries to health care supply.
These papers and earlier studies are available.
Economic Analysis of the Manufacturing Sector in Illinois – April 16, 2019
Inforum teamed with the Manufacturing Institute to quantify the economic contribution of Illinois’ manufacturing sector to the state economy. Additionally, select county economies were analyzed. Inforum used IMPLAN to measure direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Manufacturing’s direct activity accounts for 12% of Illinois GDP and directly employ over 590,000 workers. When upstream supply-chain (indirect) and income-related (induced) effects are considered, manufacturing’s contribution to the state economy grows in significance. Total (direct + indirect + induced) employment swells to 1.5 million. Meanwhile, total value-added approaches $200 billion.
Delivering for America- The Economic Impact of Reinvesting in America’s Infrastructure Systems – January 25, 2019
Inforum worked with Business Roundtable to examine the effects of infrastructure investment on the economy. Investing in infrastructure pays for itself several times over. Every additional $1 invested in infrastructure delivers roughly $3.70 in additional economic growth over 20 years. Investing an additional $737 billion over 10 years adds $5.9 trillion to real GDP over 20 years as a result of a 0.10 percentage point increase in the average annual real GDP growth rate over that period. Increased infrastructure investment also boosts labor productivity, job growth, and wages.
The Economic Impact of Curbing the Optional Practical Training Program – December 17, 2018
Inforum worked with Business Roundtable to estimate the economic impacts of scaling back the Optional Practical Training (OPT) Program. OPT offers temporary employment authorization to international students in the United States, allowing eligible students and recent graduates to gain valuable work experience in their field of study. The analysis finds that a 60 percent reduction in OPT participation would lead to about a 0.25 percentage point decline in real GDP by 2028. Curbing the OPT program would also eliminate over 400,000 jobs and reduce real hourly wages by 17 cents over the next decade.